Fire RileTier 1
at DTR Store Chapionship
decks
6
(54.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
24
13-11-0
overall winrate
54.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.1%
avg ELO -1.1 per match
expected value
51.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1277
· median 1271
· range 1051–1476
(6 pilots with an ELO rating)
1051
Q1 1189
Q3 1358
1476
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
17% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.1% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 51.1% | +0.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.7% | -8.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 9.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 60.4% | +7.7 |
| Fire Suited | 9.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.0% | -12.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 9.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.5% | -5.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.2% | +3.2 |
| Water Fractal | 9.1% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 48.9% | -0.7 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.0% | -6.7 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 7 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 7 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Liminal Guide, Rile the Abyss, Undying Dreams. Losers more often ran: Crux Sight, Evercurrent Raider, Reduce to Ash.
Liminal Guide
Winning decks ran 3.9
copies on average,
losing decks 3.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Banned
Rile the Abyss
Winning decks ran 3.9
copies on average,
losing decks 3.6.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Undying Dreams
Winning decks ran 3.9
copies on average,
losing decks 3.6.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Crux Sight
Losing decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Evercurrent Raider
Losing decks ran 3.1
copies on average,
winning decks 1.6.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Reduce to Ash
Losing decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
winning decks 2.7.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Mnemonic Charm
Losing decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Merlin, Kingslayer
Losing decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Incarnate Majesty
Losing decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Show all 119 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 99 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liminal Guide | +0.57 | 4 | 0 | 3 | |
| Crux Sight | -0.57 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | -0.57 | 1 | 5 | 1 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.29 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| Mnemonic Charm | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rile the Abyss | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 3 | |
| Merlin, Kingslayer | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 3 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Memory Thief | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| The Majestic Spirit | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 3 | |
| Sudden Steel | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 3 | |
| Spark Alight | -0.29 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fireball | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Insignia of the Corhazi | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Uncover the Plot | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Luxera's Map | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gleaming Cut | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Luxem Sight | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lightweaver's Assault | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Blinding Steel | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Juggle Knives | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Art of War | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 4 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Inert Sword | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
| Drawn Blade | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Votive Runeblade | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Mirage's Grave | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Baleful Oblation | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Manxome Armoire | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Extorting Blackjack | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Devouring Malice | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Grande Sonnerie | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Ciel, Omenbringer | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Grim Pastiche | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Advent of the Stormcaller | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Duplicitous Replication | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Paragon | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veiled Oracle | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |
| Creative Shock | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Searing Truth | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignis Deus | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Fabled Ruby Fatestone | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Suzaku's Command | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |